"All I’m saying is that the pain of inflation is more spread out than the pain of unemployment."
But is this really true? Seeing the unemployment rate climb increases your perceived estimate of the risk of losing your own job which, even if the probability isn't that high, exacts a much greater cost than gas costing a dollar more per gallon at the pump. Or maybe your child is graduating from college into the Great Recession and not only can't get a job but is at risk of her entire career path being permanently wounded, and you deeply feel the pain of your child (or of your close friend or relative who *did* lose their job).
Bottom line: perceiving the current economy as being as bad (or worse!) than during the Great Recession is almost definitive proof of some kind of psychological breakdown in the polity. No matter what happened to the price of eggs.
Yeah, in the end, I can't really dispute the "some kind of psychological breakdown" view -- I'm mostly just trying to get a better understanding of the contours thereof. Because yelling at people and saying "things are great -- why don't you see it?" is clearly a non-starter as a strategy, and it really is important to understand *why* people think things aren't great.
I'll say only one more thing though about the "vicarious pain" in a recession of seeing other people lose their jobs and such: this isn't a pretty aspect of human nature, but "there but for the grace of God go I" can actually make you, personally, feel kind of good about yourself in addition to feeling bad for the other person. Not if it's your kid -- but if it's your brother-in-law? Maybe so. Not saying that invalidates what you're saying -- just adding it as an additional element.
What's the saying? That the true measure of success in life is making more than your brother in law?
I'm only marginally in the psychological breakdown camp. I get that people got upset about inflation: it was new to their experience and we had no idea how bad it would get. So, a rational response.
With inflation taming now, and all other indications being good, "rationally" people should be more positive on the economy. But maybe it's just the lag time effect: the economy hasn't been that good for *that* long. Maybe, if trends hold, in a year people will feel very good about the economy, a la "Morning in America" 1984. And that too would be rational. Perhaps the negative opinions really just reflect fear that things could turn bad again soon. But every day that *doesn't* happen increases confidence that it *won't* happen, and thus people will feel better.
But if the economy is great in November 2024, and people are still so down on it (and not just for nakedly partisan reasons), then I'm fully in the "psychological breakdown" camp.
"There are rational reasons to worry about the stability of the economy beyond the worry that the Fed will tip us into recession by hiking rates too aggressively. And even if you don’t know where it’s coming from, you may get a whiff of fear in the air."
Does that explain why so many people's IRAs & 401s are merely treading water?
"All I’m saying is that the pain of inflation is more spread out than the pain of unemployment."
But is this really true? Seeing the unemployment rate climb increases your perceived estimate of the risk of losing your own job which, even if the probability isn't that high, exacts a much greater cost than gas costing a dollar more per gallon at the pump. Or maybe your child is graduating from college into the Great Recession and not only can't get a job but is at risk of her entire career path being permanently wounded, and you deeply feel the pain of your child (or of your close friend or relative who *did* lose their job).
Bottom line: perceiving the current economy as being as bad (or worse!) than during the Great Recession is almost definitive proof of some kind of psychological breakdown in the polity. No matter what happened to the price of eggs.
Yeah, in the end, I can't really dispute the "some kind of psychological breakdown" view -- I'm mostly just trying to get a better understanding of the contours thereof. Because yelling at people and saying "things are great -- why don't you see it?" is clearly a non-starter as a strategy, and it really is important to understand *why* people think things aren't great.
I'll say only one more thing though about the "vicarious pain" in a recession of seeing other people lose their jobs and such: this isn't a pretty aspect of human nature, but "there but for the grace of God go I" can actually make you, personally, feel kind of good about yourself in addition to feeling bad for the other person. Not if it's your kid -- but if it's your brother-in-law? Maybe so. Not saying that invalidates what you're saying -- just adding it as an additional element.
What's the saying? That the true measure of success in life is making more than your brother in law?
I'm only marginally in the psychological breakdown camp. I get that people got upset about inflation: it was new to their experience and we had no idea how bad it would get. So, a rational response.
With inflation taming now, and all other indications being good, "rationally" people should be more positive on the economy. But maybe it's just the lag time effect: the economy hasn't been that good for *that* long. Maybe, if trends hold, in a year people will feel very good about the economy, a la "Morning in America" 1984. And that too would be rational. Perhaps the negative opinions really just reflect fear that things could turn bad again soon. But every day that *doesn't* happen increases confidence that it *won't* happen, and thus people will feel better.
But if the economy is great in November 2024, and people are still so down on it (and not just for nakedly partisan reasons), then I'm fully in the "psychological breakdown" camp.
"There are rational reasons to worry about the stability of the economy beyond the worry that the Fed will tip us into recession by hiking rates too aggressively. And even if you don’t know where it’s coming from, you may get a whiff of fear in the air."
Does that explain why so many people's IRAs & 401s are merely treading water?