Oct 30, 2023Liked by Noah Millman

"All I’m saying is that the pain of inflation is more spread out than the pain of unemployment."

But is this really true? Seeing the unemployment rate climb increases your perceived estimate of the risk of losing your own job which, even if the probability isn't that high, exacts a much greater cost than gas costing a dollar more per gallon at the pump. Or maybe your child is graduating from college into the Great Recession and not only can't get a job but is at risk of her entire career path being permanently wounded, and you deeply feel the pain of your child (or of your close friend or relative who *did* lose their job).

Bottom line: perceiving the current economy as being as bad (or worse!) than during the Great Recession is almost definitive proof of some kind of psychological breakdown in the polity. No matter what happened to the price of eggs.

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"There are rational reasons to worry about the stability of the economy beyond the worry that the Fed will tip us into recession by hiking rates too aggressively. And even if you don’t know where it’s coming from, you may get a whiff of fear in the air."

Does that explain why so many people's IRAs & 401s are merely treading water?

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