No one knows. People claim they know but no one knows.
That said I'll throw some stuff in the pot:
1. Unless Biden has an emergent health problem he will be passionately resented. There was a good time to step down, the convention isn't it.
2. People are way too sure about Harris, both as poison and as a shoo-in.
3. People have claimed it will seem illegitimate, I doubt it. If Biden steps down the Party has no choice, they have to come up with a candidate, people will get that. On top of that there is no real primary, it's not as if the voters have been consulted along the way.
I agree that if his closest advisers are afraid that Biden isn't up to running for President (he's more than up for *being* President) and don't tell him that, then we're in trouble.
If they try to hide him from the public and run a basement campaign, that is foolish and will fail.
I think if he's up for the task then it's time for those who fear Trump's reelection to stop talking about how old he is, roll up their sleeves and get to work to ensure Biden's victory.
Here's how we'll know. In 27 days Biden will give the State of the Union address. If he does as well as he did last year, is energetic and cogent, and shows flexibility and focus, then it's time for us to drop the question about his dropping out. If instead he shows significant decline from last year's performance, then maybe we can think about options.
In the meantime, let's stop wringing our hands about this and take a page out of the Republicans' book and exude confidence about our candidate and certain victory in November. One way to become a loser is to look like a loser.
Ezra Klein's recent column and podcast on this was especially nuanced and thoughtful. Unlike so much commentary on this he puts real effort into gaming out the mechanics. So many pieces (not Noah's) decry the feckless "Democrats" with no more than a cursory glance or lazy fantasies about what would actually have to happen to address the situation. And no, Obama can't have a man-to-man talk with Biden, he had that talk in 2016.
Over at LGM Scott Lemieux gave Ezra a thoughtful half-cheer. (I don't usually go to LGM for nuance, but this was good). Conclusion:
"I suppose there might be a point where Biden’s poll numbers flatline to the extent that this massive risk would be worth it. But let’s say I would be very, very careful."
It's a tough one. Do I wish Biden stepped aside? Yes. But more than that I wish other Democrats had stepped up. Yet there was a collective action problem. One big Dem runs, he or she is the problem. Four big Dems run, Biden is the problem. In any case they'd have to take on Harris. Messy, messy, messy. It's easy to see why we are where we are.
To Noah's solution, Hur's report is a barely cleared footpath, nowhere near wide enough to be an off-ramp.
Give it up. On the meter of the self-interested and prideful, as well as the confused and vindictive, Biden will do just fine. To continue raise the question makes one feel there is A Trojan Horse in the room,
But if they do that, and Biden steps aside, and there's a nomination contest, does that actually improve their chances of winning?
No one knows. People claim they know but no one knows.
That said I'll throw some stuff in the pot:
1. Unless Biden has an emergent health problem he will be passionately resented. There was a good time to step down, the convention isn't it.
2. People are way too sure about Harris, both as poison and as a shoo-in.
3. People have claimed it will seem illegitimate, I doubt it. If Biden steps down the Party has no choice, they have to come up with a candidate, people will get that. On top of that there is no real primary, it's not as if the voters have been consulted along the way.
It's the only chance of stopping Trump. Biden obviously can't do it. The report and Biden's horrible press conference confirmed that.
I agree that if his closest advisers are afraid that Biden isn't up to running for President (he's more than up for *being* President) and don't tell him that, then we're in trouble.
If they try to hide him from the public and run a basement campaign, that is foolish and will fail.
I think if he's up for the task then it's time for those who fear Trump's reelection to stop talking about how old he is, roll up their sleeves and get to work to ensure Biden's victory.
Here's how we'll know. In 27 days Biden will give the State of the Union address. If he does as well as he did last year, is energetic and cogent, and shows flexibility and focus, then it's time for us to drop the question about his dropping out. If instead he shows significant decline from last year's performance, then maybe we can think about options.
In the meantime, let's stop wringing our hands about this and take a page out of the Republicans' book and exude confidence about our candidate and certain victory in November. One way to become a loser is to look like a loser.
Is there any point commenting on an old thread?
Ezra Klein's recent column and podcast on this was especially nuanced and thoughtful. Unlike so much commentary on this he puts real effort into gaming out the mechanics. So many pieces (not Noah's) decry the feckless "Democrats" with no more than a cursory glance or lazy fantasies about what would actually have to happen to address the situation. And no, Obama can't have a man-to-man talk with Biden, he had that talk in 2016.
Over at LGM Scott Lemieux gave Ezra a thoughtful half-cheer. (I don't usually go to LGM for nuance, but this was good). Conclusion:
"I suppose there might be a point where Biden’s poll numbers flatline to the extent that this massive risk would be worth it. But let’s say I would be very, very careful."
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/02/can-a-candidate-imposed-on-the-party-be-legitimate
It's a tough one. Do I wish Biden stepped aside? Yes. But more than that I wish other Democrats had stepped up. Yet there was a collective action problem. One big Dem runs, he or she is the problem. Four big Dems run, Biden is the problem. In any case they'd have to take on Harris. Messy, messy, messy. It's easy to see why we are where we are.
To Noah's solution, Hur's report is a barely cleared footpath, nowhere near wide enough to be an off-ramp.
What about #5–confidence in enough not-fully eligible ballots being accepted so that Dems win?
My guess is that Michelle hasn’t yet agreed to run, so they don’t have a good alternative lined up, with Kamala being no better than Biden.
Give it up. On the meter of the self-interested and prideful, as well as the confused and vindictive, Biden will do just fine. To continue raise the question makes one feel there is A Trojan Horse in the room,