Not a german nor do i speak german, so my having opinions is a bit ridiculous, but being the junior partner in a coalition is usually bad for a party's fortune in the next election. FDP's previous stay in government (2009-2013) resulted in not passing the electoral threshold and thus being shut out of parliament in the subsequent election. Although this election bucked the trend, over the years SPD also did not profit being the junior partner. FDP is very exposed in a traffic light coalition - an Israeli solution to this problem would make Lindner the Kanzler...
Agree on the boon of fragmentation - having 2 center left parties and 2 center right parties allows protest votes to remain in the center.
My having opinions may be ridiculous as well, so don't apologize. FDP has always been a junior partner, and has sometimes prospered and sometimes suffered in that role; the same is true of the Greens. "Unnatural" coalitions that pair left- and right-wing parties create unique problems, and that's the case here because the next coalition will inevitably have that character.
Back in 2017, the FDP refused to enter what was seen as the only government option - CDU-FDP-Greens. It's thought that the intention was forcing a snap election and hoping for a CDU-FDP majority.
The CDU's weakness has been attributed to Laschet being a poor choice for lead candidate, so a snap election can potentially benefit both the CDU and FDP, whose platforms largely overlap.
Snap elections aren't endorsed in the constitution as result of Weimar instability. Still, I wouldn't rule out one being held.
I have a hard time imagining that strategy being rewarded by voters. If the mainstream parties couldn't agree on a government, forcing a new election, I would think that would benefit the AfD and Linke, which all the mainstream parties want to avoid. The FDP would be the most vulnerable to voter backlash if they were viewed as the reason for the failure, since most voters want to see an SDP-led government.
Not a german nor do i speak german, so my having opinions is a bit ridiculous, but being the junior partner in a coalition is usually bad for a party's fortune in the next election. FDP's previous stay in government (2009-2013) resulted in not passing the electoral threshold and thus being shut out of parliament in the subsequent election. Although this election bucked the trend, over the years SPD also did not profit being the junior partner. FDP is very exposed in a traffic light coalition - an Israeli solution to this problem would make Lindner the Kanzler...
Agree on the boon of fragmentation - having 2 center left parties and 2 center right parties allows protest votes to remain in the center.
My having opinions may be ridiculous as well, so don't apologize. FDP has always been a junior partner, and has sometimes prospered and sometimes suffered in that role; the same is true of the Greens. "Unnatural" coalitions that pair left- and right-wing parties create unique problems, and that's the case here because the next coalition will inevitably have that character.
Back in 2017, the FDP refused to enter what was seen as the only government option - CDU-FDP-Greens. It's thought that the intention was forcing a snap election and hoping for a CDU-FDP majority.
The CDU's weakness has been attributed to Laschet being a poor choice for lead candidate, so a snap election can potentially benefit both the CDU and FDP, whose platforms largely overlap.
Snap elections aren't endorsed in the constitution as result of Weimar instability. Still, I wouldn't rule out one being held.
I have a hard time imagining that strategy being rewarded by voters. If the mainstream parties couldn't agree on a government, forcing a new election, I would think that would benefit the AfD and Linke, which all the mainstream parties want to avoid. The FDP would be the most vulnerable to voter backlash if they were viewed as the reason for the failure, since most voters want to see an SDP-led government.