A good, thoughtful post - however: Israeli society is much more fractured than even you seem to think here (that's a common mistake made by American Jews of all political persuasions with regard to Israel).
And due to the many fractures in Israeli society, the incoming government can either function as a moderate center-right administration - classical Bibi - or it will likely collapse soon. Many, if not most of Likud's voters are soft traditionalists of a Oriental Jewish background who voted for Netanyahu primarily in order to endorse his *moderate* leadership against what is - justifiably, in my view - perceived as an unfair persecution launched by the country's old secular Ashkenazi elite against an outsider representing their interests. And the thing is now: parts of the agenda of the religious right, both of the Haredim and of the Settlement Movement, are unpopular or even very unpopular among those moderate voters. If Netanyahu veers too much right, his government simply won't survive for very long, facing enormous elite opposition, a constitutional crisis, mass demonstrations and abysmal approval ratings. In that case, things will be bad but that won't be the big fat civil war many people are fearing. Yes, there will be some minor violence. But, in the end, Netanyahu will simply be deposed, continue with his trial and, probably, end his life in prison. The giant secular middle-class backlash this country will see afterwards may, in the long run, be sadder than a civil war, though. But in that case, the right will have nobody else to blame than itself.
PS: I stumbled upon your blog thanks to the link in Ross Douthat's last column. What's your take on Israeli films?
I don't share your assessment WRT the incoming government's stability. The coalition partners' incompatibilities make the new government inherently unstable. For example, the new government's strange bedfellows include a free market economic libertarian finance minister who will find himself politically cohabiting with Haredi socialists who favor income redistribution and large scale government spending. Some of the incoming cabinet ministers have agreed to swap ministries after two years (if the government lasts that long). Earlier this week Netanyahu ordered everyone in his office and entourage to take lie detector tests. See David Horovitz's article in yesterday's TOI: https://www.timesofisrael.com/he-won-the-elections-over-7-weeks-ago-so-why-is-netanyahu-still-not-back-in-power/?fbclid=IwAR3g8KK49SRtkDkLFXsDNZSkBOAo5X441-Gq-VFkgHYSGk6elbZb80RQbKA
The author is concerned about a "far right" approach to "independence of the judiciary, the professionalism of the police, the relationship of religion to state and the status of non-Jewish Israeli citizens." All valid concerns of course . . . but it is precisely because of the absolute hash of these areas that the recent and unmourned "centrist" and Arabic coalition government made that the "far right" is getting its chance. Let us wish them the best, even if being dubious.
A good, thoughtful post - however: Israeli society is much more fractured than even you seem to think here (that's a common mistake made by American Jews of all political persuasions with regard to Israel).
And due to the many fractures in Israeli society, the incoming government can either function as a moderate center-right administration - classical Bibi - or it will likely collapse soon. Many, if not most of Likud's voters are soft traditionalists of a Oriental Jewish background who voted for Netanyahu primarily in order to endorse his *moderate* leadership against what is - justifiably, in my view - perceived as an unfair persecution launched by the country's old secular Ashkenazi elite against an outsider representing their interests. And the thing is now: parts of the agenda of the religious right, both of the Haredim and of the Settlement Movement, are unpopular or even very unpopular among those moderate voters. If Netanyahu veers too much right, his government simply won't survive for very long, facing enormous elite opposition, a constitutional crisis, mass demonstrations and abysmal approval ratings. In that case, things will be bad but that won't be the big fat civil war many people are fearing. Yes, there will be some minor violence. But, in the end, Netanyahu will simply be deposed, continue with his trial and, probably, end his life in prison. The giant secular middle-class backlash this country will see afterwards may, in the long run, be sadder than a civil war, though. But in that case, the right will have nobody else to blame than itself.
PS: I stumbled upon your blog thanks to the link in Ross Douthat's last column. What's your take on Israeli films?
I don't share your assessment WRT the incoming government's stability. The coalition partners' incompatibilities make the new government inherently unstable. For example, the new government's strange bedfellows include a free market economic libertarian finance minister who will find himself politically cohabiting with Haredi socialists who favor income redistribution and large scale government spending. Some of the incoming cabinet ministers have agreed to swap ministries after two years (if the government lasts that long). Earlier this week Netanyahu ordered everyone in his office and entourage to take lie detector tests. See David Horovitz's article in yesterday's TOI: https://www.timesofisrael.com/he-won-the-elections-over-7-weeks-ago-so-why-is-netanyahu-still-not-back-in-power/?fbclid=IwAR3g8KK49SRtkDkLFXsDNZSkBOAo5X441-Gq-VFkgHYSGk6elbZb80RQbKA
The author is concerned about a "far right" approach to "independence of the judiciary, the professionalism of the police, the relationship of religion to state and the status of non-Jewish Israeli citizens." All valid concerns of course . . . but it is precisely because of the absolute hash of these areas that the recent and unmourned "centrist" and Arabic coalition government made that the "far right" is getting its chance. Let us wish them the best, even if being dubious.