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Scott Smyth's avatar

There's no way Kagan, Jackson and Sotomayor support Trump's attempt to reconfigure the 14th amendment. So only two of the other six need to join them. I think there's a high likelihood that Barrett does, a pretty good likelihood Gorsuch does, and a high likelihood that Alito does not. I think there's about a 50% chance that Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Thomas also join the opinion overturning the order.

So I'm essential predicting 6-3 or 7-2 overturning this nonsense.

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Cole Pickard's avatar

The conservative justices will be far less sympathetic of Trump's EO than you expect. I don't even really see it getting on it's feet at the lower courts.

Here's a relevant law review article from (likely) the next conservative SCOTUS appointee:

https://www.gibsondunn.com/wp-content/uploads/documents/publications/Ho-DefiningAmerican.pdf

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